What Comes After The Bombs? Possible Futures Of Iran If US Strikes

 

US President Donald Trump has issued a stark warning to Tehran, saying that failure to reach an agreement on nuclear weapons would invite consequences far more severe than anything seen before. Iranian officials have responded by reiterating their openness to negotiations, but only on what they describe as "mutually beneficial, fair and equitable" terms.

At the same time, Iran's foreign minister struck a sharply defiant tone, declaring that the country's armed forces have their "fingers on the trigger" and stand ready to "powerfully respond" to any aggression.

With tensions rising, a BBC analysis outlines a range of scenarios that could unfold if the standoff tips into open conflict.
Regime Falls, Democracy Emerges

In the most optimistic reading, US military action could weaken Iran's ruling establishment enough to trigger its collapse. American air and naval power could focus on key assets of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Basij paramilitary force, missile depots, launch facilities, and components of Iran's nuclear programme.

Already strained by economic sanctions and persistent public unrest, the regime could buckle under the pressure, potentially opening the door to a democratic transition. History, however, offers caution. While the 2003 invasion of Iraq sought regime change, and Libya's intervention removed Muammar Gaddafi, neither resulted in a stable democracy.
Survival With Strings Attached

Another possibility mirrors the Venezuelan experience under Nicolas Maduro. In this scenario, US pressure stops short of dismantling the system entirely, instead forcing policy concessions while leaving the Islamic Republic intact.

Iran could be compelled to rein in its backing of violent militias across the region, curb or abandon parts of its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes, and loosen its grip on domestic protests. Yet after 47 years of resistance to external pressure, Iran's leadership has shown little inclination toward compromise, making this path unlikely.
Regime Replaced By Military State

A more plausible outcome may be the emergence of an even harder regime. US strikes could further weaken civilian authority, allowing a military-dominated government that is heavily influenced or outright controlled by the IRGC, to take over.
Iran Strikes Back

Iran may choose retaliation. While it cannot match the US Navy and Air Force head-on, it has a sizeable arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones, many hidden in underground facilities or remote mountainsides.

US military bases line the Gulf, including Bahrain and Qatar. Iran could also target infrastructure in countries it views as allies, such as Jordan. The 2019 missile and drone strike on Saudi Aramco's facilities, attributed to an Iranian-backed militia, exposed just how vulnerable regional energy infrastructure can be.

Gulf states allied with Washington are deeply concerned that any US action against Iran could quickly spill over onto their territory.
Iran Lays Mines In The Gulf

Another response would see Iran laying mines in the Gulf. This tactic dates back to the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-88, when shipping lanes were mined and the Royal Navy was deployed to clear them.

The narrow passage between Iran and Oman, known as the Strait of Hormuz, is one of the world's most critical energy corridors. Roughly 20 per cent of global LNG exports and around 20-25 per cent of oil and petroleum products pass through it annually. Iran has repeatedly rehearsed rapid mine-deployment drills, and any attempt to block the strait would likely jolt oil markets and disrupt global trade.
A US Warship Is Hit

One of the gravest risks would be the loss of an American naval vessel. A US Navy captain once described a key concern as a potential "swarm attack", in which Iran deploys waves of explosive drones and fast attack boats in overwhelming numbers.

The IRGC Navy, which has largely supplanted Iran's conventional naval force in the Gulf, specialises in asymmetric warfare designed to offset US technological superiority. 

The sinking of a US warship, particularly if crew members were captured, would be a profound humiliation for Washington. Though unlikely, precedent exists. The USS Cole was crippled by an Al-Qaeda suicide attack in 2000, killing 17 sailors, and in 1987 the USS Stark was mistakenly struck by Iraqi missiles, killing 37.
Regime Falls, Chaos Ensues

Neighbouring states such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia fear that the breakdown of authority in Iran could unleash civil war, similar to the devastation seen in Syria, Yemen, and Libya.

In such chaos, ethnic tensions could erupt as Kurds, Baluchis, and other minorities move to protect themselves amid a national power vacuum. While many in the region, especially Israel, would welcome the end of the Islamic Republic, no one wants to see a country of roughly 93 million people spiral into disorder, triggering mass displacement and a humanitarian catastrophe.

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When Ajit Pawar's swap deal helped uncle Sharad remain Defence Minister

  In 1991, when PM PV Narasimha Rao named Sharad Pawar the Defence Minister after Congress's election victory, it was Ajit Pawar, a first-time MP, who gave up his Baramati Lok Sabha seat. The move allowed his uncle to contest from Baramati, enter Parliament and continue in the Union Cabinet. But a swap deal was involved too.

Both the Baramati Lok Sabha and Assembly seats have been represented by Ajit and Sharad Pawar. (India Today Image)

Both the Baramati Lok Sabha and Assembly seats have been represented by Ajit and Sharad Pawar. (India Today Image)

Sushim Mukul

New Delhi,UPDATED: Jan 30, 2026 08:52 IST

It was November 1991, and two by-elections were set to take place in Maharashtra's Baramati. But the mood in the Pawar pocket borough appeared oddly lacklustre. The reason was simple. Baramati was witnessing a seat swap. Baramati's Lok Sabha MP Ajit Pawar was contesting the Baramati Assembly seat, while his uncle and Baramati MLA, Sharad Pawar, was seeking the Lok Sabha seat his nephew won decisively just months back. With no real opposition capable of putting up even a token challenge in the family bastion, both Pawars were confident of victory, reported India Today Magazine in November 1991.

But, since Ajit's uncle and political mentor, Sharad Pawar (then an MLA), had to be elected as an MP, to keep his defence portfolio in the Cabinet of PM PV Narasimha Rao, he left the parliamentary seat.

Nearly 35 years after that swap deal, Ajit Pawar died in a plane crash in Baramati on Wednesday. But he was no longer a political novice as he was in 1991. Ajit Pawar was one of Maharashtra's powerful leaders in his own right.

Ajit Pawar's death has brought attention to the interesting 1991 chapter of his political life. The seat swap shaped Maharashtra's politics and Ajit Pawar's career. Given the fresh memory of Ajit Pawar's July 2023 split with uncle Sharad, and the breaking up of the NCP, many today, might find the 1991 Baramati seat swap of some interest.

Sharad Pawar formed the NCP in 1999, along with PA Sangma, and Tariq Anwar, after breaking away from the Congress. The 2023 NCP split was in contrast with the developments of 1991. Back then, Ajit Pawar was just stepping into politics, and Sharad Pawar was positioning himself for a national role. And it all happened in Baramati, the Pawar bastion.
HOW RAJIV GANDHI'S DEATH SET THE STAGE FOR THE BARAMATI BY-POLLS OF 1991

The backdrop to the 1991 Baramati swap was that of an extraordinary churn in national politics. Rajiv Gandhi's assassination in May 1991 had plunged the Congress into crisis and uncertainty. Sharad Pawar, then one of the Congress's most formidable regional satraps, was very much part of that churn. He had served as the Maharashtra CM and was eyeing bigger roles within the Congress.

There were even murmurs in Congress circles at the time about Pawar being a potential challenger for the party's top post after Rajiv Gandhi's death. After the Congress's narrow and messy mandate in 1991, PV Narasimha Rao emerged as prime ministerial face as a consensus, and a non-threatening choice.

And in the Cabinet PM Rao assembled, reflected a mix of experienced leaders, regional heavyweights and some technocrats. With names line, Shankarrao Chavan, Manmohan Singh, Arjun Singh, Sitaram Kesri, and Ghulam Navi Azad, Rao formed the government in Delhi. After a month of looking after the defence portfolio, Rao roped in the Maratha chieftain, Sharad Pawar, into his Cabinet in late June 1991. He was then serving as the Maharashtra CM and representing the Baramati Assembly seat.

For Pawar, an aspirant of a national role, being in Delhi was non-negotiable. Even more binding was the constitutional requirement that a Union minister must become a member of either House of Parliament within six months of appointment. This was the reason behind the Baramati seat swap and the 1991 by-polls.

Baramati, Pawar's political fortress since the late 1960s, offered the safest route.
WHY AJIT PAWAR GAVE UP LOK SABHA SEAT? IT WAS BECAUSE OF FAMILY TRUST

Ajit Pawar did not choose to follow in his father's footsteps, who worked at the Rajkamal Studios in Bombay, nor did he pursue any other career option. Having lost his father at an early age, Ajit followed in the footsteps of his uncle and joined the Congress in the early 1980s.

Ajit cut his teeth in politics through "milk unions, various cooperative societies, sugar factories and banks", notes his official website.

By 1991, Ajit was a bigwig in Baramati and neighbouring Pimpri-Chinchwad. Sharad Pawar had planned 150 industrial units in the region and aimed at turning local influential people into entrepreneurs. One of them was Ajit Pawar, who had lost his father at the age of 18. Ajit Pawar had by then set up the Rs 3.5-crore Baramati Solvent Extractions plant, to produce sunflower oil, India Today Magazine reported in 1991.

In the May-June 1991 Lok Sabha election, nephew Ajit, all of 32, was given a Congress ticket. He defeated the BJP's Pratibha Lokhande with a 73.9% vote percentage. But just four months after Ajit Pawar was sworn in as the Baramati MP, he resigned. For Sharad Pawar, looking to latch onto his prized portfolio, that was the obvious solution. The move was clinical, and a testament of family trust and calculations. Ajit's resignation triggered the unusual spectacle of simultaneous Baramati by-polls in both the Lok Sabha and the Assembly.

There was no suspense. Sharad Pawar contested and won comfortably. He thus secured his place in the Lok Sabha and his top Cabinet berth. Ajit Pawar entered the Maharashtra Assembly. Sharad Pawar kept serving as the Defence Minister until March 1993, when he was asked to return to Maharashtra as the CM after the Bombay riots. This time he led the Maharashtra government as a Member of the Legislative Council.

While Ajit helped his uncle by vacating his Lok Sabha seat, he was made the Minister of State for Agriculture, Horticulture and Power in the CM Sudhakarrao Naik's government in Maharashtra.
BARAMATI KEPT ELECTING AJIT PAWAR AS MLA SINCE THE 90s

"After the Babri Masjid demolition (in December 1992), riots broke out in Mumbai. The normal life in Mumbai had collapsed for 14 to 15 days. I was the Defence Minister in the PV Narasimha Rao government. I was called to the PM's residence, and I was told that there is no other recourse than to return to the state. I was not willing to go. For over six hours, it was insisted [that Sharad Pawar should go to Mumbai]. I was even made emotional and told that the state where I was born and brought up and from where I came till here [Delhi], was burning and in such a situation, if you [Pawar] are not taking the responsibility, it would sadden them," Sharad Pawar revealed in 2021.

While Sharad Pawar came back to Maharashtra, he would go back to Delhi again — for 10 years (2004-2014), when he was made the Minister of Agriculture in the Manmohan Singh Cabinet. Since then, Sharad Pawar's NCP has been a party mostly in the opposition, both in the Centre and Maharashtra, until Ajit Pawar split the party to join the BJP-led Mahayuti, part of the bigger NDA.

On the other hand, Ajit Pawar retained Baramati until his death on Wednesday, with the Assembly constituency never electing any MLA other than him. Whether it was his charge of key ministries, multiple stints as Maharashtra's finance minister, or his repeated tenures as deputy chief minister, Pawar's political career remained anchored to the same Baramati Assembly seat he won in the 1991 by-poll.

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Opinion | Ajit Pawar: The Politician Who Didn't Pretend

 Back in the monsoon of 1999, the then Congress heavyweight Sharad Pawar had broken away from the party to set up his own. Four months later, the nascent Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) contested the Maharashtra Assembly elections with the clock symbol. That campaign was tough in many ways  - old friends and compatriots had become new rivals, the organisational set-up was still being consolidated, sources of funds had trickled down. What was short on resources, Pawar decided, would be made good by the second rung of leaders he had groomed. He sent the handful across the state, especially into corners of western Maharashtra - his stronghold - and monitored every move and statement each of them made. Foremost among them was Ajit Pawar, his nephew.
What Sharad Pawar Told Me Years ago

“Is he your number two,” I asked him while accompanying on one of his many road campaigns. Pawar shook his head. “At this point, I don't know what kind of a politician and political leader he will grow into. He has everything going for him, he is sharp and intelligent, he works hard and is willing to keep long hours, he understands the value of connecting with workers and people in every village. But then there are others who show similar qualities too. Let the race begin. If he has what it takes, he will emerge the first among equals,” replied Pawar, in a rare instance of a long answer.

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Over the next 25 years and some, Ajit Pawar not only emerged as a frontrunner among his colleagues in the party but also split the party, took away the name and the symbol - albeit with the blessings of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) - was sworn in as Maharashtra's Deputy Chief Minister for a record six times, presided over significant portfolios such as finance and irrigation, and decisively came out of the shadows of his uncle and political mentor. Ajit Ashatai Anantrao Pawar, as he took his name during the oath-taking ceremonies, at 66 years, was a politician in his own right, more than a powerful uncle's nephew.

He evolved a grounded approach and rustic style all his own. A straight talker to Pawar's few words. Humorous to Pawar's deadpanism. Going the extra mile for power that even Pawar might not have considered - such as openly allying with the BJP. But what he learned from his mentor was visible in his firm and steady grasp over the administrative machinery, his stern and no-nonsense approach to work, his clarity and focus with bureaucrats and his staff, his sensitivity and personal approach to people who came to him, his ability to say things publicly that drew spontaneous applause from listeners, and his friendships across party divides.
One Of Their Own

As darkness fell on January 28 at the Vidya Pratishthan grounds in Baramati, the home turf of the Pawar clan, and tens of thousands crowded every available square metre of space grieving for their Ajitdada - killed with four others that morning in an airplane crash minutes before landing at Baramati - Pawar Sr would have run the reel of Ajit Pawar's political and personal life in his mind's eye. It was a loss like no other. For the Pawar clan, a deeply personal loss. For Baramatikars, it was personal and political; they had lost a leader who knew many of them as his own.  

The outpouring of grief in the wider circles too was testimony of his politics of command, compromise, and care; the corruption charges of Rs 70,000 crore in the irrigation scam were forgotten and the ‘clean chit' from the investigating agencies was hardly talked about. All said, Pawar's politics did not shift overtly even as his alliance coasted along - he did not visit the headquarters of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) to “pay his respects”, he questioned the campaign of UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath during the elections in 2024, and he found a way to balance his ambition for power - which could only come if he ran with the BJP - with his basic framework of non-communal, people-centred politics.

In this lies the significance of Ajit Pawar's loss to Maharashtra, perhaps even to the nation. Few will make the claim that he was among the most honest or non-corrupt leaders to have walked this soil. Besides the serious allegations in the irrigation scam, Ajit Pawar faced the central agencies' probe for misappropriation of funds in the Maharashtra State Central Cooperative Bank and the sugar factories in his control. Fewer will applaud him for sophistication of his language and thought - remember that awful remark, ‘should I pee to fill the dam if there's no water?' - and even fewer for his social skills in the chic wine-and-cheese circles. That was not his stomping ground at all. He left it to others, including cousin and MP Supriya Sule.
Ajit Pawar, The Doer

His world lay elsewhere - early morning starts, long and hard days of file-reading and signing, meetings intended to have outcomes rather than fill calendars, abjuring the spoils of power most associated with politicians, knowing his workers, forging relationships with people of his terrain, being briefed on the latest developments in the world, and more. Ajit Pawar bent over backwards to be in power; when there, he commandeered it to work for the public while helping his party, of course. Till the end, he remained a political leader whose worldview had been crafted by his early years on the ground, in the fields and homes of farmers and teachers, his learnings from his uncle's political gurus including the late YB Chavan, and his own razor-sharp judgements of situations and people.

Ajit Pawar was no saint in politics - and never claimed to be one. He was a politician with a purpose - and made no bones about it. His aspiration, even ambition, was to be the Chief Minister of Maharashtra, a post that eluded him despite he being a step away from it on many an occasion. Still, he hoped. Would he have made a big difference to the state, to its people and development? That will remain tantalisingly unanswered. Will the NCP now merge with the Sharad Pawar faction and will it continue to ally with the BJP? The answers will take their time to come.

What will matter in the years ahead, as his impact on the state in the past 40 years of public life - 25 of them in office - and the full weight of his absence is assessed by contemporary historians or political scientists is this: in 2026, Ajit Pawar was among the extremely few who understood the state's pulse, both rural and urban, and knew how to work the levers of power, but he was perhaps the only one with these qualities as well as a steadfast commitment to non-communal politics, which kept him from bowing down politically. In this sense, the void he leaves will be hard to fill.

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Thane: Tribals stage protest at Dy CM Eknath Shinde’s home against demolitions

Several tribals from areas falling within the Sanjay Gandhi National Park staged a protest outside the residence of Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde in Thane city against the demolition of their hamlets, reported news agency PTI.

The protesters claimed they had been living in the area for generations and criticised the administration for demolishing their dwellings on Monday. The agitation was held outside Shinde’s residence late at night, reported PTI.

Vivek Pandit, chairperson of the state tribal development committee, told reporters that no demolition should be carried out until the 2018 rehabilitation plan is implemented and the affected families are properly resettled, reported PTI.

The protest was later called off after authorities assured the tribals of a discussion on the rehabilitation plan, an office-bearer of the social organisation that led the agitation said.

Farmers launch foot march from Nashik to Mumbai to press for their demands

Meanwhile, thousands of farmers and labourers launched a foot march to Mumbai from Nashik on Sunday to press for their various demands, including land rights, irrigation facilities and uninterrupted power supply, reported PTI.

Led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and Akhil Bharatiya Kisan Sabha, the protesters, carrying red flags, accused the government of not keeping its promises and threatened to gherao Mantralaya, the state secretariat, in Mumbai, if their issues are not resolved, reported PTI.

CPI(M) Polit Bureau member and All India Kisan Sabha national president Ashok Dhawle, and CITU national vice president DL Karad are among those taking part in march, reported PTI.

Implementation of the Forest Rights Act, land rights under PESA (Provisions of the Panchayats (Extension to the Scheduled Areas) Act), execution of irrigation schemes, minimum support price for soybean and maize are among their issues.

Earlier, a similar "long march" was undertaken in Palghar district, and it ended after the administration agreed to many of their demands, said Kisan Sabha national joint secretary Ajit Navale. "After the Thane and Palghar, we have now embarked on a long march to Mumbai (about 200 km away) from Nashik," he said, reported PTI.

Navale said farmers had launched similar protests in 2015 and 2019, when Devendra Fadnavis was the chief minister, and in 2023 during the tenure of the then CM Eknath Shinde. "The government gives assurances during such agitations, but does not fulfil them," he alleged, reported PTI.

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India came out on top: US trade chief says EU deal tilts in Delhi's favour

  The US trade chief has said India will emerge as the biggest beneficiary of its landmark trade deal with the EU, gaining wider market access and potentially enhanced mobility for Indian workers in Europe.

Jamieson Greer is Donald Trump's Trade Representative with the rank of Ambassador. (Photo: AP)

Jamieson Greer is Donald Trump's Trade Representative with the rank of Ambassador. (Photo: AP)

India Today World Desk

New Delhi,UPDATED: Jan 28, 2026 09:18 IST

As India and the European Union finalised a massive trade agreement of unprecedented scale, the United States’ top trade official has said the deal appears to tilt in New Delhi’s favour by opening wider access to the European market.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, in an interview with Fox Business, said India would “come out on top” of the agreement and predicted that New Delhi was “going to have a heyday” once the deal is implemented.

"I've looked at some of the details of the deal so far. I think India comes out on top on this, frankly. They get more market access into Europe," Greer said, adding,

Referring to details of the proposed agreement, the US official further observed, "It sounds like they have some additional immigration rights. I don't know for sure, but President von der Leyen of the EU has talked about mobility for Indian workers into Europe. So I think on net, India is going to have a heyday with this".

India and the European Union on Tuesday sealed a landmark Free Trade Agreement -- billed as the 'mother of all deals' -- creating a combined market of nearly two billion people and unveiling a transformative five-year agenda aimed at leveraging trade and defence cooperation to uphold the rules-based global order. The pact, which will account for almost a quarter of global GDP, will eliminate tariffs on 99 per cent of Indian exports to the EU while cutting duties on over 97 per cent of the EU’s exports to India.

The US trade chief, however, appeared to downplay the significance of the development, saying the evolving global trade environment has pushed the European Union to seek alternative markets as the United States prioritises domestic manufacturing and adopts more restrictive trade policies.

"Strategically, it's important to understand that because President Trump has prioritised domestic production and essentially started charging a fee for other countries to access our market, these countries are trying to find other outlets for their overproduction. And so the EU is turning to India to try to find a place," Greer said, adding that the "EU is so trade dependent".

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